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Friday, March 17, 2006

How much Risk can you stomach?


Risk is an abstract concept. Very often, it is perceived risk rather than actual risk. We can take on a lot more risk doing something that we are more familiar with. For example, we think that driving a car is less risky than venturing into businesses. If we know the percentage of casualties caused by car accidents, we may think otherwise. When taking flights were reserved to the privileged few many years ago, people think that sitting in an airplane flying from one place to the other was more risky than taking ground transport. Newspapers often have air crash stories on the first page. After people realized that air crash casualties are far less than ground transport accident casualties statistically, taking flights are not that risky after all.

Our perceived risk is very much influenced by dramatization and herd instinct. We can identify with victims easily. Human being like to cry victim simply because it gives them pleasure to do so. It gives them attention from other people. And so when someone said that he was victim of a business venture, you would most likely paid him your attention and declared that venturing into business is risky. This is particularly so if that someone is close to you.

I have a colleague who is still undergoing flying training to become a First Officer told me that he had a tough time convincing his mum to let him join the pilot’s profession simply because his mum’s brother died piloting an airforce fighter a few years ago. To his mum, her perceived risk of piloting an airplane is much more compared to the rest of us who have not suffered from an airplane accident either directly or indirectly before.

We also tend to conform with the people around us in terms of the amount of risk that is acceptable to us. If three out of your four friends told you that taking part in a bungee jump will sprain your neck, you would most likely not taking part in that sport. Would you bother to find out what is the percentage of people who sprain their necks taking part in a bungee jump? When three out of your four neighbors bought fire insurance to protect their houses, you would probably be thinking hard about getting one too.

We do hear news of roller-coaster accidents that resulted in death. The next time you are in a theme park queuing for a roller-coaster ride, you probably won’t think of those news because right in front of you, there are lots of people who have taken the ride and come out unscathed.

Risk is associated with everything that we do in this world. Be it taking a flight, driving in a car, walking on a street or simply sitting at home. At any one time, accident might happen. Other traffic might hit us. The picture hanging on the wall at home might fall onto our head. Or natural disaster such as earthquake, flood or tsunami might strike. Or airplanes come crashing into the office that you are working in. (Yes, I don't have to mention that day in September.)

The same goes to every action or inaction that you decided on. In today’s world where the Internet has intensified the competition in the job market, is working for people in exchange of monthly salary not risky too? The job skills that you acquired today may go obsolete in five years time due to cost cutting and outsourcing. The way to survive is to constantly upgrade our skills and to adopt a risk diversification strategy. Acquiring both employable skills and business skills is part of the risk diversification strategy. Not only are we able to work for different companies, we are also able to venture out on our own should we need to one day. The last thing we should do is to cry victim of our employer and keep complaining about overwork, underpaid and being poor all the time!

Friday, March 10, 2006

My Friend is Starting a Business


I caught up with my old school friends during Chinese New Year celebration two months back and we had a very interesting conversation about venturing into business. The major players in the conversation are Mr Dare Tudu, Mr Study Lor, Mr Cyni Cal and of course, Mr Specky Pilot.

Dare Tudu initiated, “I wish to venture into women’s jewellery and accessories business. Do you guys think it’s feasible?”

Study Lor replied, “Must do market feasibility research first lar…”

Cyni Cal added, “How much is the start up cost?”

Dare Tudu said, “Very low man. I know people buy the beads in bulk. One big bag only costs a few dollars. Especially if you buy from Korea or China.”
“But how about the import costs?” Cyni Cal interjected.

Specky Pilot spoke for the first time having just joined the conversation after grabbing a beer. “I remembered walking past a similar shop in Central Square Shopping Center yesterday.”

“Still can do lar… The market is so big. Some more the start up cost is so low. I just need someone to design and make the jewellery. Shop floor rental is not that high in this small town.”

“But how much can the profit margin be?” Cyni expressed his opinion once more.

“Hey guys, don’t you know 95% of the business start-ups close down within the first 5 years? And those 5% that succeeded has probably failed many times before.” Study Lor adjusted his spectacles.

“What 5%? I think less than that ah…”, Cyni Cal again.

“That is the problem with you all university graduates. Everything must do research. Everything must come up with a written proposal. By the time you do all that, the market is already saturated with the products you want to sell. Just do it lah, why scared?” argued Dare Tudu. He is not a university graduate, but has since opened up two internet cafes.

“Guys,” Specky tried to analyze. “Doing business involves taking risk. Most of the people like to stay in their comfort zone doing what is familiar to them. When they have decided to stay comfortable, they are not willing to take risk. No risk, no gain, as simple as that. People who succeeded are those who are willing to take risk and fail. They are the ones who don’t give up easily. They action, fail, learn from their mistakes and action again.”

“The higher your academic achievement, the more psychological barrier you will have to overcome. Because more often than not, your ego will be like this high,” signaled Study Lor with his right palm horizontal above his nose.

“That’s why there are so many motivation seminars and courses for entrepreneur these days. Because entrepreneurs need motivation everytime they fail. He he…”, laughed Cyni Cal.

“Still, people want to venture into businesses especially restaurant business. Every now and then, you see new eating joints spring up here and there. Close down, new ones open again on the same spot.” Dare Tudu sipped his Tiger Beer.

“Yeah, because people still think that venturing into businesses is one way to make it big. How to get rich being an employee all the time?” Study Lor had done his homework.

“I agree, man. Unless you are the top 1% employee of the company like CEOs, COOs or someone in that category,” Dare Tudu expressed his wisdom.

“There are also people who venture into anything that makes money: pirated DVDs, imitated branded goods and so on. There was this friend of mine who came to me the other day saying that he managed to get a batch of mobile phones from China at a very low price. He asked me whether I am interested in joining him in distributing the phones. When I probed further, the phones didn’t come through a proper channel. Those one-time high profit margin businesses are not for me. I go for the long term.”

“Dare,” Specky looked at Dare Tudu in the eyes and said, “please don’t let us stop you in taking risks. It is common that friends will always discourage you from doing things that are different from what they are doing. At the back of our mind, we will always like to stand and watch. If you succeed, we will love to join you. If you fail, we will take comfort that we didn’t take the plunge together with you. Some might even say, “we warned you beforehand, didn’t we?””

“Everyone wants success, but not everyone wants to sacrifice,” Study said coldly.

“Aiyah! NATO. No Action one, Talk Only lar!” Cyni Cal being his usual self.